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"Parametric – Historic" Procedure for Seismic Hazard Assessment and Its Application to the Istanbul Area
A. Kijko, G. Graham
Council for Geoscience, Pretoria, South Africa
A.O. Oncel
Istanbul University, Department of Geophysical Engineering, Istanbul, Turkey
ABSTRACT: A new methodology for probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA), is presented. The new approach combines the best features of the "deductive" (Cornell, 1968) and "historic" (Veneziano et al., 1984) procedures. The technique has been developed specifically for the estimation of seismic hazard at individual sites without the subjective judgment involved in the definition of seismic source zones. The approach used permits the combination of historical and instrumental data. The historical part of the catalogue contains only the strongest events, whereas the instrumental part can be divided into several subcatalogues, each assumed complete above a specified threshold of magnitude. The maximum credible magnitude mmax is of paramount importance in this approach and a large part of the development consists of its optimal evaluation. In order to illustrate the new PSHA methodology we present results of seismic hazard analysis for Istanbul, Turkey.
RESULTED FIGURES Figure 1 Figure 2 Figure 3 Figure 4 Figure 5 Figure 6
