Ouroboros

Biology is not destiny. It was never more than tendency. It was just nature's first quick and dirty way to compute with meat. Chips are destiny.
--Bart Kosko, Ph.D., Heaven in a Chip

...we imagine we can regulate and canalize the next great lusty phase of evolution upon the Earth for our utility and profit. But what comes for us in the next few centuries is a vast and devouring typhoon. I feel its bright abrasive winds and steel thunder approach and rustle the fragile lineaments of our civilization.
--St.Boniface, Cyberia


Note: the following texts require some basic knowledge of Transhumanism. If you're not familiar with this philosophy, it might be a good idea to check out some of these (introductory) sites first.



Intro

We're at a crossroads. The events that await us in the first half of the the next century will determine the fate of everyone on earth, for, as Vernor Vinge put it at the 1993 NASA VISION-21 Symposium:
`Within thirty years, we will have the technological means to create superhuman intelligence. Shortly after, the human era will be ended.'
This event, the relatively sudden emergence of superintelligence (SI), is often referred to as the Singularity in Transhuman circles. The longer definition is:
"SINGULARITY: the postulated point or short period in our future when our self-guided evolutionary development accelerates enormously (powered by nanotech, neuroscience, AI, and perhaps uploading) so that nothing beyond that time can reliably be conceived". [Vernor Vinge, 1986] (Lextropicon).
Whether these new, Posthuman beings will be augmented humans, artificial intelligences (AIs) or some hybrid form, they will no doubt change life as we know it rapidly and profoundly. For better or for worse; what happens to those that are left behind in this burst of self-directed hyperevolution is by definition unknown, unknowable even, but extinction is definitely one of the more realistic options.

The Singularity is virtually inevitable; only global disasters like a massive meteorite impact, all-out nuclear warfare, an extremely contagious and deadly virus (natural or due to biological warfare), runaway nanotechnology ("grey goo") or nanites used as a weapon ("black goo") etc., could seriously delay or prevent the Singularity by decimating or even wiping out the human race. Unless this happens, technological progress will keep rapidly accelerating until superintelligence is a fact. Directed efforts to stop some of the more dangerous technologies which might cause a Singularity, especially AI, can only slow the process down somewhat, not stop it entirely. Unless of course one is prepared to sacrifice civilization itself, which given the fact that we need progress to survive isn't a very good idea. Still, less destructive Singularity-delaying actions might buy valuable time and should therefore not be dismissed alltogether.

After all, what good is a glorious future if one's not part of it? If AIs become superintelligent before humans do, this will reduce us to second-rate beings that are almost completely at the mercy of this new "master race". During our domination of the earth, we have wiped out countless animal species, brought others (including our "cousins", the apes) to the brink of extinction, used them for scientific experiments, put them in cages for our enjoyment etc., etc. This is the privilege of (near-absolute) power. If we lose our top position to our own creations, we will find ourselves in the same precarious position that animals are in now. Unless the AIs for some strange reason allow us to upgrade and become as powerful as them, we will at best have to live in oppression and with the constant threat of annihilation (or worse) casting its shadow over our existence. Indeed, quite like the kind of life we'd have if God existed; forever restricted, uncertain. Of course, the same applies to a scenario where one or several people gain a decisive edge over the rest of humanity, most likely by uploading and merging with non-conscious AIs. Because one's personality would almost certainly change, perhaps completely beyond recognition, once the augmentation process starts, it doesn't even really matter whether the person would be "good" or "bad" to begin with; the result would be unpredictable anyway. Many of our current emotions and attitudes, the legacy of our evolutionary past, could easily become as antiquated as our biological bodies in the posthuman world. True, the future doesn't necessarily have to be bad for humans, the SIs could be great philantropists for all we know, but depending on this slight chance is dangerously naive.

Yet, though lip service is occasionally paid to the dangers of the Singularity (and powerful new technologies in general), there is no known coordinated effort within the transhuman community to actively prepare for the coming changes. This has to do with the generally (too) optimistic, idealistic and technophilic attitude of many Transhumanists, and perhaps a desire to make/keep the philosophy socially acceptable and [thus] easier to proliferate. Visions of a harsh, devouring technocalypse, no matter how realistic, simply don't fit this rather mild, almost "politically correct" image. Of course lethargy, defeatism, strife and conservative thinking also contribute to the lack of focus and momentum in Transhumanism, but the main problem seems to be that "we" aren't taking our own ideas seriously enough, fail to fully grasp the implications of things like nanotech, AI and the Singularity. Or, as Nick Bostrom put it recently on the >H list:

[...] "As long as we are just thinking about what it takes to spread the meme, we aren't really serious about what ought to be one half of transhumanism: anticipating and averting threats.

Rather than thinking of transhumanism as pro-technology, let's think of it as pro certain options that advanced technology will offer (life extension etc.). This is fully compatible with focusing a lot of attention on potential risks.

So rather than saying that the problem of malicious nanomachines is an argument against transhumanism, let transhumanist thinking grow to encompass this danger. We can be the ones who talk about the risks and the need to do something about them. We can take the lead in thinking about the downsides and dangers as well as in envisioning the opportunities inherent in technological development. The Foresight Institute has managed to do this in the domain of nanotechnology, but I think we have some way to go to do the same for our field which includes science and technology in general.

A first step might be to separate the true threats (e.g. destructive uses of nanotech or malicious AI), that one should be worrying about, from the much smaller threats or pseudo-threats (e.g. GM food, cloning) that the public at large is worried about.

Step 2 will then be to discuss what strategies would minimize these threats."

Enter Transtopianism. This philosophy follows the general outlines of Transhumanism in that it advocates the overcoming our biological and social limits by means of reason, science and technology, but adds the element of "formalized" Singularitarianism (belief in the Singularity) as well as some other often implicitly assumed components like Atheism, Egoism, cryonics and Hedonism to the package. Essentially, Transtopianism is an attempt to realize Transhumanism's full potential as a practical way to improve life in the present, and to survive radical future changes. A philosophy motivated by equal amounts of hope and fear, instead of blind (or at least weak-sighted) technophilia.

Transtopianism's main message is as follows: assuming that we don't destroy ourselves first, technology will radically change our (relatively) near future, resulting in the emergence of superintelligence and [thus] the Singularity. Those who will aquire a dominant position during this event, a classical Darwinian struggle, will likely reap enormous benefits; they will become "persons of unprecedented physical, intellectual, and psychological capacity, self-programming, self-constituting, potentially immortal, unlimited individuals''. Those who for whatever reason won't participate or fall behind will face a very uncertain future, and quite possibly extermination or worse (like becoming the playthings of whimsical demi-gods). Therefore, one should put great effort into aquiring a good starting position for the Singularity, which includes things like gathering as much wealth as possible, keeping abreast of the latest technological developments and implementing them to become a more efficient and powerful individual, ultimately resulting in ascension trough uploading.

This is a tall order indeed, and to increase one's chances of success, cooperation with like-minded individuals is essential (unless, perhaps, if one happens to be a tech-savvy billionaire already, but I think it's fairly safe to assume that whoever reads this isn't one of those -- we transhumanists are traditionally a rather poor bunch). Hence, I propose the Singularity Club, a mutual aid association for those who want to make the most of our radical future. Of course, as with cryonics, the possibility of success may be slim, but since there's nothing to lose (death is the default) and a universe to gain, why not give it a try? Given the circumstances, it is the rational thing to do. As the saying goes: shoot for the moon, even if you miss you'll land among the stars.



Transtopian Principles | Singularity Club | Transhumanism | Egoism | Enlightenment Test | Vernor Vinge on the Singularity (article) | Five Things You Can Do To Fight Entropy Now (essay) | E-mail



Last updated : 8-10-99