Copyright © YAHOO.COM, Monday August 30, 1999 4:00 am Eastern Time
ANALYSIS
Aceh, not Timor, is Indonesia's nightmare
By Chris McCall
Source: http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/990830/c0.html
JAKARTA, Aug 30 (Reuters) - Jakarta may give independence to poor East Timor, but no major party wants to let go of violence-ridden Aceh or other resource-rich regions now seeking to retain more of the money which their oil and gas provide to Indonesia.
The fate of tiny East Timor, where voters on Monday were expected to grab President B.J. Habibie's offer of independence, was being closely watched elsewhere in the archipelago.
In Aceh and the vast eastern province of Irian Jaya, separatist rebellions are being fuelled by resentment over the wealth which has long flowed out to the main power centres in the central island of Java.
They and two other provinces, Riau in Sumatra and East Kalimantan on Borneo, provide the bulk of Indonesia's oil and gas revenues, a key part of the cash-strapped government's budget.
Analysts say solving the current crisis in Aceh, where more than 200 people have died bloody deaths in recent months, does not look at all easy amid the need for a tight economic policy.
``We are entering a very dangerous and uncertain time,'' said economist Sri Mulyani Indrawati, of the University of Indonesia. ``If they are all asking for more money it will be impossible for the central government to accommodate all.''
Jakarta is increasingly dependent on oil and gas revenues, thanks in part to rising oil prices.
The International Monetary Fund, leading a more than $45 billion bailout of the country, wants a tight economic policy. Yet energy and mineral earnings remain the only real option to keep the central budget and debt repayment afloat.
``Oil and gas (revenue) is equal to the total income tax revenue of the government,'' said Indrawati, noting that energy revenues account for about 40 trillion rupiah (about $5.2 billion) per year.
No party, even the Indonesian Democratic Party-Struggle which won June's parliamentary poll, has an answer to this, she said.
In Aceh, separatist Free Aceh rebels have stepped up their campaign for an independent Islamic state. President Habibie and his ministers have been greeted by jeering crowds of demonstrators on recent visits.
Within weeks of Habibie's announcement that Jakarta might allow East Timor to choose independence, demands for a similar referendum were being voiced in Aceh.
Like East Timor, Aceh suffered years of human rights abuses by the military under former President Suharto.
Unlike East Timor, Aceh's gas revenues are a crucial resource for the centre. It has also been part of Indonesia since independence in 1945, unlike East Timor, which Jakarta invaded in 1975.
Saifuddin Bantasyam, a law lecturer at Syiah Kuala university in Banda Aceh city and a leading human rights advocate, says data show that support for a referendum is strongest in areas which have suffered the greatest levels of rights abuses.
But so far the government's strategy has been nearly all wrong, he said, especially a highly unpopular move to set up a new military command for the province.
Aceh separatists have a history of fighting central rule ever since the original Dutch colonialists.
Analysts say Indonesia's new government will need to deal with Aceh's problems urgently. But Acehnese remember a series of broken promises by past governments and want action now.
However, independence for East Timor could also help Jakarta hold off separatism elsewhere.
Australia-based Indonesia expert Harold Crouch said it may strengthen the central government by releasing the 15,000 thousand troops and police in Timor now, who can be redeployed elsewhere.
In Aceh's case, there are enough Acehnese in Jakarta's own ruling elite and enough within the province firmly opposed to an independent, Islamic Republic of Aceh to prevent any breakaway being a clean affair, he said.
``The trouble with both Aceh and Irian Jaya is that they are just too valuable to let go,'' Crouch said.
Law expert Bantasyam said Jakarta needs to clearly define in law Aceh's supposedly autonomous status, and what areas it applies to.
More urgently, the government should seek a similar dialogue with Free Aceh as it did with the leader of the East Timorese resistance, Xanana Gusmao, in the runup for Monday's referendum.
Recently a government team went to Sweden to try to meet Free Aceh's exiled leader, Hasan Tiro, but he refused to meet them on the grounds the wrong people had been sent. Bantasyam doubts that this approach was a serious one on the government's part.
``The people who are sent have to be people who don't have political interests. This dialogue has to be not only with people outside the country but also with Free Aceh forces who are in Aceh. The Indonesian government has to formally plan a dialogue,'' he said.
